ISABELNET
Advanced Stock Market Forecast for Professional and Individual
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U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500
U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Monday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was not bullish at all, well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 followed through, ending the day down 0.51%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps…
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S&P 500 Earnings vs. Their Long-Term Trend
S&P 500 Earnings vs. Their Long-Term Trend Inflation-adjusted S&P 500 earnings are now at the top of a two-standard-deviation channel that has contained them for 90 years. This isn’t a market-top call, but it is a warning light. Image: Real Investment Advice
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Best Six Months of the Year Starting in Midterm Years for S&P 500
Best Six Months of the Year Starting in Midterm Years for S&P 500 Bulls have reason to smile. November through April has been the S&P 500’s strongest six-month stretch. In midterm years, the run has been even better: stocks have climbed in all 19 periods since 1950, posting a…
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Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total The S&P 500 is increasingly top-heavy: its 10 largest stocks make up 39% of the index and 37% of its earnings, leaving the benchmark more exposed to a small group of companies.…
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S&P 500 – 12 Months After Each Midterm Election
S&P 500 – 12 Months After Each Midterm Election U.S. stocks have historically posted double-digit gains in the 12 months after midterm elections. But with the market so concentrated, another positive post-midterm year, the 22nd in a row, may depend on just a handful of stocks.…
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Cumulative S&P 500 EPS Growth Surprise During the Earnings Season
Cumulative S&P 500 EPS Growth Surprise During the Earnings Season S&P 500 earnings are still beating estimates in Q3 2026, but the size of upside surprises has cooled after a stronger first half. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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CTAs Exposure to Bonds
CTAs Exposure to Bonds CTAs remain wary of rates risk, with bond exposure at the 10th percentile. Treasuries have rallied sharply, but they have covered only a fraction of their shorts. More short covering could follow. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
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Discretionary Positioning vs. Earning Growth
Discretionary Positioning vs. Earning Growth Discretionary investors remain cautious despite strong earnings growth. But with estimates still moving higher and macro risks contained, cash may soon find its way into stocks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
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Median Quarterly S&P 500 Return Based on Real Economic Growth Environment
Median Quarterly S&P 500 Return Based on Real Economic Growth Environment Slower economic growth hasn’t stopped stocks from climbing. When earnings rise, the S&P 500 has often pushed higher, though at a more measured pace. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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Small Cap Equity Positioning
Small Cap Equity Positioning Small-cap positioning is still very light, sitting in the 22nd percentile. If sentiment shifts, there’s room for a meaningful pickup in risk-taking. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
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Change in Foreign Holdings of U.S. Equities
Change in Foreign Holdings of U.S. Equities Foreign investors now hold roughly $10 in U.S. equities for every $1 they have bought. The buying that built the position was modest. The position itself is not. If sentiment turns, that imbalance could matter. Image: Deutsche Bank…
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S&P 500 Index and Technical Score
S&P 500 Index and Technical Score The S&P 500’s technical reading eased to 53.53, back to neutral territory. A rally is still possible, but a sharper pullback could open the door to further losses. Until sentiment turns, caution remains the better call. Image: Real Investment…
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Various S&P 500 Index 6-Month Returns
Various S&P 500 Index 6-Month Returns From November through April, Wall Street gets a seasonal tailwind: the market’s so-called “best six months.” Holiday shopping, year-end bonus season and tax considerations help push stocks higher. Image: Carson Investment Research
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MSCI AC World EPS
MSCI AC World EPS Earnings estimates for 2027 and 2028 are holding firm, with analysts still seeing room for upgrades. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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Insider Transactions Ratio
Insider Transactions Ratio Buying and selling have come back into balance, pushing the Insider Transactions Ratio into neutral territory. Corporate insiders are sitting on the sidelines, showing little conviction in either direction. Image: Barron’s
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Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies remain firmly overweight, with positioning in the 79th percentile. Discretionary investors are more cautious, still underweight in the 21st percentile and with ample room to add risk. Image: Deutsche Bank…
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Hyperscaler Free Cash Flow
Hyperscaler Free Cash Flow Hyperscalers’ combined free cash flow turned negative in Q3 and is expected to stay there through 2027 as AI spending accelerates. A recovery is not expected until 2028. For now, burning cash is the cost of staying in the race. Image: Goldman Sachs…
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ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. factory activity expanded in October. The ISM Manufacturing Index climbed to 55.5, beating expectations of 54.5 and notching a tenth straight month of expansion. The sector remains on firm footing. The chart shows the correlation…
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Mega-Cap Growth and Large-Cap Tech Positioning
Mega-Cap Growth and Large-Cap Tech Positioning Positioning in mega-cap growth and large-cap Tech has fallen sharply from its highs, back to neutral at the 40th percentile. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
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Earnings Surprises of S&P 500 Companies
Earnings Surprises of S&P 500 Companies Earnings season is sounding a familiar note: corporate profits remain resilient. So far, 60% of S&P 500 companies have beaten Q3 estimates by at least one standard deviation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research