Marc to Market Marc Chandler on Global FX and Capital Markets
Making Sense of Global Capital Markets
- Website
- marctomarket.com · all feeds from this site
- Feed URL
http://www.marctomarket.com/feeds/posts/default?alt=rss
Read it in your FeedListing reader
Or add to: Feedly Inoreader Raw feed
Latest posts
-
November 2026 Monthly
The EU and China understanding was one of the highlights of October, but the China shock rolls on. The economic disruption from China's export drive continues. Even as the Chinese yuan gradually appreciates, the price competitiveness of many Chinese goods appears to be…
-
Greenback Dragged Lower by Questions of the AI Meme
The US dollar is finishing the week offered. The proximate cause is the arguably softer rates and the as a result of new questions about the AI-meme, following the disappointing Amazon and Intel earnings news and guidance yesterday. This followed the robust Q3 US GDP report that…
-
Gradualist Fed, AI Questions, and Slightly Firmer Greenback Ahead of ECB's Most Likely Stand Pat Decision
The dollar is firmer than most of the G10 currencies today, in the aftermath of the FOMC meeting. Fed Chair Warsh repeatedly noted that tightening of financial conditions since the September rate hike. Yet, while recognizing that the tightening does not mean tight, the Federal…
-
Focus on FOMC and Bank of Canada, after Reserve Bank of New Zealand Disappointed
The US dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies today. The outlier is the New Zealand dollar, which has been punished in response to the unexpected standpat decision by the central bank, the first of five G10 central banks that meet this week. It is a warning shot to the Bank…
-
Euro Underperforms
The markets are nervous, five G10 central banks meet in the next three sessions. December WTI holds above $100 a barrel as Iranian attacks continue. Israel goes to the polls today, while top security officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Türkiye meet Iranian leaders in…
-
Moody's Did Not Downgrade France and Peripheral Premiums are Narrower, but the Euro Struggles to Find Traction
There are two impulses today. First, defying expectations, Moody’s did not downgrade its assessment of French credit, which remains above S&P and Fitch’s ratings. With a show of force by the government, French protests were less violent. French bonds have rallied and the…
-
Week Ahead: Five G10 Central Banks Meet and Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada are Most Likely to Hike
The US dollar was mostly softer after the G10 currencies last week. The euro, where the bond tensions escalated, was the notable exception. It finished the week with a modest loss of about 0.35%\. It was the sixth weekly decline in the past seven weeks, Moody's did not downgrade…
-
France's Flash October PMI drop below 50 Ahead of Moody's Decision Later Today
The foreign exchange market looks eerily calm. After the safe haven flows yesterday supported the Swiss franc and yen, today they have diverged. The yen’s minor gain puts its atop the G10, while the Swiss franc’s 0.25% loss puts its at the bottom. The pressure in the European…
-
Risk Appetites Wane: AI Jitters Returns, European Debt Stress Continues, Oil Firms
Market sentiment is fragile. After earnings helped boost sentiment yesterday, a different set of earnings weakened it today. The broad retreat has seen some signs of risk-off in the foreign exchange market with the yen and Swiss franc leading the major currencies. At the same…
-
Euro Pressure Persists
Fears over the AI-meme, which took the semiconductor index down more than 10% last week, has stabilized with the help of favorable earnings by Super Micro Computer and SpaceX. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 14.5% last week amid the anxiety. It rallied 3.3% today and is now higher…
-
AI Anxiety Returns, Peripheral Premiums Widen in Europe, and Oil Extends Gains
The US dollar is mostly softer as AI worries resurface. A dismal showing of an IPO for an AI infrastructure company in South Korea seemed to renew last week’s concerns. The Canadian dollar is leading the charge today after the secessionist referendum in Alberta lost handily. The…
-
Euro Marked Down, China's GDP Firmer than Expected, AI Equities Stabilize
The US dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies to start the new week. The dollar-bloc and Scandis are firmer, while the euro, Swiss franc, sterling and yen are softer. The euro is weakest after being marked down initially on the social strife in Europe, especially France, the…
-
Week Ahead: Rates, AI, and Oil
In understanding and anticipating exchange rate movement we often privilege interest rates and the drivers of capital flows instead of trade flows. However, a new player may have entered the game. Or perhaps, more aptly, left the game. The AI meme may have cracked. From 30k…
-
China's Trade Surplus Swells and the Market Awaits US CPI
( Business travel disrupts the commentary for the next two days, but the weekly will be posted October 17. Thank you for your patience.) Investors are wary of the unwinding one of the most crowded trades, long the AI ecosystem. Despite cracks, the market remains resilient. So…
-
Softer Rates, Heavier Dollar
The pullback in bond yields is the main development in the global capital markets today. Rates eased in Asia Pacific, but the eye of the storm has been in Europe and benchmark 10-year yields are off mostly 4-7 bp today. The move is being led by France and Italy. However, the…
-
Week Ahead: Firm US CPI and Unresolved European Challenges Despite Deal with Beijing may Drive Markets
It is too early to have much confidence that the fever in the bond market has broken, but benchmark 10-year yields in North America, most of Europe, including France and Italy, settled lower on the week. The 10-year JGB yield fell seven basis points to return to 3%. Following…
-
Renewed Pressure in Europe Helps Lift the Greenback
(Business travel on October 8-9 will disrupt the daily analysis. The commentary will resume with the weekly on October 10. Thank you for your patience. Good luck.) Renewed pressure in European bonds has sent the euro back below $1.12, nearly a cent off yesterday’s high. Its loss…
-
Collective Sigh of Relief as Oil Prices Drop, Yields Fall, and Stocks Rise
The US dollar is mixed today, the general tone in the capital markets is constructive. Success by the Saudi-back Yemen forces have recapture strategic territory from the Houthis, which has held drive oil prices lower. Bond yields in Europe have tumbled and the wide peripheral…
-
European Politics Drag the Euro Lower
The US dollar is mostly narrowly mixed today. The political woes in Europe weighed on the euro, which was driven to nearly $1.1160, a 17-month low. The market does not like the developments in France and the 10-year premium over Germany is nearly 150 bp today. The two leading…
-
October 2026 Monthly
The third quarter closed with the world economy looking more resilient than it has any right to look. The wars in Iran and Ukraine continue. Energy markets have been disrupted. Food prices are broadly rising again. Central banks have resumed tightening. Yet, the high-income…