Heisenberg Report
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Latest posts
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Um, Excuse Me, But Your Chips Are Bleeding
With the end of the Trump era comes the end of the AI/data center grift, which was a scheme to create wealth for the few, the illusion of prosperity for the many via the stock market and to give cover to otherwise reckless policies of wars, inflation, pollution and corruption.
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US Jobless Claims Chase History
Somebody check TruthSocial. Donald Trump’s propaganda machine might’ve made a new poster to celebrate the lowest weekly total for initial jobless claims since 1969. If you read every article published here… well, first God bless you. I hope it’s worth it. I think it is. I’d read…
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‘Tis The Season! For Temporary Fulfillment Jobs
In this week’s macro preview, I described Thursday’s Challenger report as a “now or never” moment for the seasonal hiring push in America. Recall that last month’s hiring plans as tallied by Challenger, Gray & Christmas were the lowest for any September since 2011, a potentially…
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Senseless Iran War Triggers BoE Hike, 5% Inflation Warning
“Unless the conflict in the Middle East is resolved,” it “seems” like the Bank of England might have to raise rates again. So said Andrew Bailey on Thursday when the BoE hiked for the first time in more than three years and projected a sharp rise in inflation through mid-2027.
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Deus Ex Machina?
Hey, um, “The Capex Catch-22“, an article published here on Tuesday afternoon, was an election night preview. Anybody pick up on that? At least one person did. “A potential solution would be to blame all the newly elected [Democrats] and the moratoriums and bans on data centers…
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Tsunami
Well damn. I was countin’ on that $5,000. I was gonna buy a Louis Flaneur backpack. They have one in denim now. Democrats rolled up the GOP in a barnstorming, nationwide blowout, which Donald Trump immediately washed his hands of. “I wasn’t on the ballot,” he said, throwing his…
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Irrepressible
You can’t keep it down. Naive hopes for a return to democratic normalcy and starry-eyed, blue-voter faith in the enduring resilience of America’s crumbling institutions. (I’m layin’ it on pretty thick today, folks. If you’re takin’ the bait, that’s on you. “Children and animals…
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In Other News: Scorching ‘Job Changer’ Pay Gains, AI Disruption
It’s all about politics on Wednesday, but if you care about the macro, the ADP release was interesting. Or as interesting as ADP releases can be. There were jobs everywhere last month and big pay gains on offer for workers who leave their current roles for greener pastures,…
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The Capex Catch-22
Free cash flow. It’s all about free cash flow. Or, more to the point, lack thereof. In “Tech Got No Love This Earnings Season,” I noted that EPS beats were wholly insufficient to drive outperformance for TMT stocks following earnings this reporting season. Indeed, if you read…
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Someone’s Got Work For You
Jobs. They’re out there if you want ’em. Allegedly. According to Tuesday’s only notable US macro update, there were 7.523 million open positions across the world’s largest economy on the last business day of September. That was well ahead of consensus. The 333,000 MoM increase…
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Tech Got No Love This Earnings Season
“Mr. Market,” who Benjamin Graham famously described as “cray-cray” (that’s not exactly how he put it, but that’s the gist of the parable in Chapter 8 of The Intelligent Investor), is rewarding earnings beats by one of the widest margins of the post-pandemic era. With 60% of the…
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Have The Hyper-Scalers Lost Their Minds?
For the first time, I’m starting to wonder if hyper-scaler management might’ve lost the plot in earnest. By “in earnest” I mean I’m beginning to suspect a case of mild delirium might’ve taken hold in the C-suite among the big AI spenders. (Some of you will immediately quip that…
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Apple Sets A Bunch Of Records. Misses In China
Apple on Monday reported higher-than-expected overall sales during John Ternus’s first quarter at the helm. iPhone revenue likewise came in ahead of consensus. That’s the good news. The bad news is, Greater China sales missed again, underscoring the company’s struggles to regain…
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Debbie Downers Amid The Renaissance
Ok, whaddawe got goin’ on here, some macro I have to cover? Choices, choices. Tempting as it is to just eat the business end of that M&P Bodyguard 2.0 I mentioned in “Resignation” rather than wade through an ISM report, I’ll stay with you. For now. (As a quick aside
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Sell-Side Sarcasm: New And Improved!
Everybody relax, Mike Wilson says it’s gonna be ok. That’s sarcasm, obviously, but if you could somehow taste it — the sarcasm — you’d discover it’s a different flavor of snark than that I employed historically while editorializing around sell-side strategery notes. I used to…
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Let’s Talk Blue Waves
This week, Americans will pretend they still have a say in who governs them, and the man who actually does govern them will grudgingly play along. Or maybe not, who knows. To let market pundits tell it, the most likely outcome following the US midterms is a divided Congress.…
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Polls, Projectiles And Payrolls
The marquee event this week is obviously the US midterms. You can read my (deliberately provocative) preview here. The short, inoffensive version goes like this. Republicans are likely to suffer a series of meaningful setbacks, with the only real question being whether the GOP…
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Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)
Nobody likes to hear “I told you so,” even when it comes from someone, in this case me, they enjoy reading or listening to. But here it is anyway: I told you so. Honestly I did. The last Weekly, entitled “Something Wicked This Way Comes?” (remember Dan’s dictum: “If you think
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The Problem, In A Nutshell…
Investors are genuinely concerned that these companies are in the midst of destroying some of the most successful, scalable, investor-friendly business models the equity market has ever seen. — Mike O’Rourke, JonesTrading That’s the zeitgeist right there. Mike captured it…
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What’s What And WTF?
Alphabet was on track Friday for its worst week since March of 2020, during the original pandemic bear market. The company, which upended the AI leaderboard 11 months ago in a stunning come-from-behind moment that presaged a near 40% rally in the shares, is suddenly on its…