Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's take on global economic news and events
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Latest posts
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Mish Moved Off Blogger to MishTalk.Com - For Email Alerts Please Sign Up Again on MishTalk!
I announced on February 22 Goodbye Blogger, Hello WordPress: Mish's GlobalEconomicAnalysis has Moved to MishTalk.Com . My needs outgrew blogger. The top reason is that I wanted a multi-page layout, with a different home page than the detail pages. Most of the top financial sites…
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Goodbye Blogger, Hello WordPress: Mish's GlobalEconomicAnalysis has Moved to MishTalk.Com
It's been a long run, but I am leaving Google Blogger for a new home on WordPress. Please bookmark my new site: http://mishtalk.com/ Why Leave? My needs outgrew blogger. The top reason is that I wanted a multi-page layout, with a different home page than the detail pages. Most…
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Iowa Caucuses: Cruz Edges Trump and Rubio; Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat
Ted Cruz was the surprise winner in the Iowa Republican caucuses tonight edging out Donald Trump who in turn edged out Marco Rubio in a very strong voter turnout. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is just a handful of votes ahead of socialist Bernie Sanders in a vote still…
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"Blue Chip" Optimism vs. GDPNow 1.2% 2016 Initial Q1 Forecast; Strengths and Weaknesses of GDPNow
"Blue Chip" Optimism The Atlanta Fed initial GDPNow Forecast for first quarter 2016 starts off with an anemic 1.2% whimper. "The initial GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 1.2 percent on February 1. " First…
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Construction Spending Anemic Despite Warm Weather; Where to From Here?
Economists expecting a huge surge in construction spending thanks to unusually warm December weather were no doubt shocked by today's anemic report. The Econoday Consensus Estimate was for +0.6% in a range of 0.3% to 1.3%, but not a single economist came close. Held down by…
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ISM Negative 4th Month, Employment Shows Significant Declines
Manufacturing in January continues its dismal track record with the latest ISM reading. Econoday reports ... Employment sank the ISM index in January which could muster no better than a 48.2 for what, following annual revisions to 2015, is the fourth sub-50 reading in a row.…
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China Manufacturing Prices Decline 18th Month; China Hoping to Avoid Hard Landing
China's manufacturing extended its long slump according to the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI . Chinese manufacturers signaled a modest deterioration in operating conditions at the start of 2016, with both output and employment declining at slightly faster rates than in…
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Nate Silver's Continual Underestimation of Donald Trump's Chances
On January 18, I sent the article below (starting with the title Nate Silver Off the Mark on Donald Trump Nomination Odds ) to the New York Times as an Op-Ed. They did not publish it. It's hard enough getting something timely to major news organizations, and when you do, you…
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Economists in Fantasyland: Economists See 20% Chance of Recession That's at Least 20% Likely Already Here
Economists have a perfect track record of 100% failure in ability to predict a recession. In a recession that's at least 20% likely to have already started, Economists See 20% Chance of US Recession this Year . A Financial Times survey of 51 economists, conducted in the days…
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Lacy Hunt – "Inflation and 10-Year Treasury Yield Headed Lower"
No one has called long-duration treasury yields better than Lacy Hunt at Hoisington Management. He says they are going lower. If the US is in or headed for recession then I believe he is correct. Gordon Long, founder of the Financial Repression website interviewed Lacy Hunt last…
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Poll Shows Nearly 40% of Germans Want Merkel to Resign
As proof of how badly German chancellor Angela Merkel has handled the refugee crisis, a new Poll Shows 40 Percent of Germans want Merkel to Quit . Nearly 40 percent of German voters think Chancellor Angela Merkel should quit over her liberal asylum policy after almost 1.1…
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BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7%; Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming?
The BEA "Advance GDP" estimate for 4th quarter came in today at +0.7% vs. an Econoday Consensus Estimate of 0.9% . Consumer spending is the central driver of the economy but is slowing, at least it was during the fourth quarter when GDP rose only at a 0.7 percent annualized…
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Bank of Japan Adopts Negative Interest Rates: Surprise, Surprise We Lied Again; Meaning of "Now"
Meaning of "Now" Eight days ago, the Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda, said No Plan to Adopt Negative Rates Now . Well, that was then, and this is now. Negative Rates Announced Today we learn Bank of Japan Adopts Negative Interest Rates . The Bank of Japan has slashed…
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World's First Robot-Run Lettuce Farm to Produce 30,000 Heads Daily; Tipping Point for Workerless Agriculture
Future of Farming The future of farming has arrived. It's vertical, soilless, and run by robots. Tech Insider reports World's First Robot-run farm will harvest 30,000 heads of lettuce daily . The Japanese lettuce production company Spread believes the farmers of the future will…
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Shocking Crash: Durable Goods Orders Plunge 5.1%, Shipments Drop 2.2%, Huge Negative Revisions; Recession Here?
Crash! Durable goods orders and shipments crashed in December. The Econoday Consensus Estimate for durable goods new orders was a 0.2% rise. Here are the amazing results. Crash vs. Thud Econoday called the results a "giant thud". The words "giant crash" seem more appropriate. In…
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Fed "Workhorse" Model Says Odds of Recession in Next Year Only 3.56%; What are the Real Odds?
Of all the ridiculous opinions as to why the US is not about to enter a recession, the Fed's "Workhorse" Model is at the top of the list. Torsten Sløk, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank, is taking the optimistic route by drawing attention to a certain economic model…
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Chicago Board of Education Yanks $875 Million Bond Sale Over 7.75% Yield; Five Questions for Chicago
On Wednesday, the Chicago Board of education pulled the plug on a proposed $875 Million Bond Sale . Facing hefty yields, the financially ailing Chicago Public Schools (CPS) postponed Wednesday's planned $875 million bond sale and will evaluate the timing on a day-to-day basis, a…
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Oil Inventory Hits "Levels Not Seen in 80 Years"; Crude Jumps on News Russia May Cooperate with OPEC
"Levels Not Seen in 80 Years" The supply glut in oil storage continues as crude. Inventories hit new all-time highs this past week. The above charts from EIA Weekly Supply Data shows the crude inventory of 494,920,000 (not counting strategic reserves) passed the previous high of…
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New Home Sales Surge but Prices Down Sharply; Prices Have Room to Fall; Is Everybody In?
December new home sales surged well over the high end Econoday estimate . The outlook for the housing sector just got a boost from a sharp jump in new home sales, up 10.8 percent to a 544,000 annualized rate that is 44,000 over the Econoday consensus and 24,000 over the high…
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Financial Engineering Chart of the Day: Fed Balance Sheet vs. S&P 500
Fed Balance Sheet vs. S&P 500 I was playing around with some ideas on the St Louis Fed "Fred" database and came up with this. Mike "Mish" Shedlock Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an…