Cliodynamica by Peter Turchin
Ancient history and today's politics through the lens of Cliodynamics ("history as science"). Recent books: End Times (2023), The Great Holocene Transformation (2025).
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Latest posts
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China and AGI
A report on my trip to Chongqing
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War and Peace and War: Twenty Years After
And New Chinese and French Translations
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Demography of Polities II
France’s PolitiSequence
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Demography of Polities I
Do States Age?
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Artificial Scientists Are Not as Good as Human Scientists
Especially when humans work with machines
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What Came First in Human Evolution: Intelligence or Culture?
Where Yual Noah Harari went wrong
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Túpac Amaru II’s Rebellion according to Structural Demographic Theory
Sophomore Lynnfield High School, MA, USA
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More on the War over War
The resurgence of fortified landscapes in West Africa
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Cliodynamics and AI: the mid-2026 update
And a new AI-generated compendium on the state of Cliodynamics
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Eight Centuries of Wages in Britain II
Secular Cycles of Well-Being in the Industrial Period
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Eight Centuries of Wages in Britain I
Secular Cycles of Well-Being in the Pre-Industrial Period
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Human Unpredictability is Overrated
And History Is Not “One Damn Thing After Another”
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Ages of Religion
Civilizational Transformations in Human History
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Why Is College So Expensive?
Two hundred years of Yale tuition data tell a remarkable story
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“Our Honest Truth”—“Their Lying Propaganda”
Making Sense in the Polarized World
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War in Ukraine XI
Updating the Statistical Model for Russian Casualties
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War in Ukraine X
A Data-Based Trajectory of Russian Casualties
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The Structural-Demographic State of Japan III
Well-being/Immiseration Trends
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America at 250
A Survey of American History from the Cliodynamic Point of View
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AC for Me, Not for Thee
Rank and Privilege