Econbrowser
Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
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Latest posts
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Nasdaq Correction
As of today’s close, Nasdaq down 10%, S&P500 4%, from prior peak. Nasdaq (blue, right scale), SP500 (green, left scale). From Bloomberg: The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index ended down 1.4%, pushing it into a correction, when shares lose 10% from their last peak in October. The S&P…
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Recession in France?
A statement by the French Business Cycle Dating Committee (CDCEF) of the French Economic Association (AFSE) on 10/29/2026 (original communique in French), by way of Laurent Ferrara (Chair), and secretariatafse@gmail.com. The quarterly growth rate of French GDP just released by…
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Friday AI Fallout
Nasdaq, SP500, Bloomberg Magnificent 7 index, over the last week. Bloomberg on the turmoil.
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Business Cycle Indicators: GDP, Personal Income, Mfg & Trade Sales, Consumption
GDP is up as Jim discussed. Consumption flat, personal income ex-transfers down. Nominal consumption and income both below consensus by 0.1% m/m. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production…
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U.S. GDP grows more in Q3
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter. That is a little above the historical average growth of 3.1% and better than the numbers we’d been seeing over the last three quarters. Today’s…
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Guest Contribution: “Europe, the US, and China: Comparing Geoeconomic Size”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published in Project Syndicate. Thanks are due Sohaib Nasim for…
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The Taylor Rule and Today’s Dissents
Two voting members of the FOMC dissented in favor of raising rates. Some context for why that stance might make sense, from Jason Furman’s EconVitals Taylor rule utility. Source: EconVitals, accessed 10/28/2026. The implication that current rates are too low vis a vis the Taylor…
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On the Eve of the 2026Q3 Advance GDP Release
GDP growth nowcasted as solid; nowcasted “core GDP” goes gangbusters. Advance release to be discussed by Jim tomorrow… Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow of 10/38 (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast of 10/23 (inverted red triangle), EconVitals nowcast of 10/28 (green +), WSJ…
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Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update through 10/26/2026
Diesel prices rise again. Figure 1: Regular gasoline (blue), diesel (red), both $/gallon. Source: EIA.
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Confidence Up, Sentiment (Final) Flat
Headlines (Bloomberg) note increase in Conference Board’s Confidence index, for the first time in four months. However, the index remains pretty low, as does Michigan’s final reading on Sentiment. Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment, using Cummings Tedeschi adjustment…
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“News” Illustrated: Brazilian Election
(This is an example for my “financial system” course.) When the outcome differs from expectations in a big way, expect big asset moves.
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Naval Deployment as of 10/26: Convergence near Iran in November?
(Per open sources) from USNI: Source: USNI, as edited by author. Arrows indicate USS Theodore Roosevelt CSG to replace George Washington CSG, augmented by USS Makin Island ARG. Of course, who knows what is actually going where, but at least this is the public sourcing. Of more…