Global Trends 2030
Alternative Worlds
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Latest posts
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Great-Power War to 2030
by Joshua S. Goldstein Making predictions about social trends of any kind is extremely difficult and arguably impossible. Past efforts at prediction have been notoriously unsuccessful, as Dan Gardner has shown compellingly in his recent book Future Babble. In my opinion we just…
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Japan’s Perspective on the Future Security Environment
By VADM (ret.) Yoji Koda, JMSDF Preface It is my estimate that, even around 2030, the alliance between Japan and the United States will remain a core enabler of the security of the Asia-Western Pacific region. The division of labor between Japan and the United States with…
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Will the Long Peace Persist?
We live during an era of historically unprecedented peace. Whether we look over timescales of decades or centuries, wars have become less frequent. Figure 1 (data drawn from Pinker’s excellent new book, original sources include here and here) illustrates the downward trend in…
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Will Shale Gas Give a Second Burst to US Manufacturing?
In order to prepare for the topic this week, I have included some information of the current gas energy outlook, discussed very briefly on technologies then provided views from both proponents and opponents of the shale gas development activities. I ended with some of the…
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Will Shale Gas Give a Second Burst to US Manufacturing?
In order to prepare for the topic this week, I have included some information of the current gas energy outlook, discussed very briefly on technologies then provided views from both proponents and opponents of the shale gas development activities. I ended with some of the…
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Urbanization and Climate Change
By Dr. Nancy Brune As has been noted, the world’s population is expected to increase to 8 billion by 2025 and 9 billion by 2050. For the first time in our history, 52 percent of the world’s population lives in urban areas. By 2030, six of out every ten people will live in…
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Alpha-cities, megaslums, and tomorrow’s revolutions
By Dr. Tomas Ries Cities are among the oldest major political actors on the planet. At one time – the Greek city states and the Roman Empire – they ran the show, as the main actors able to concentrate and administer power. With the spread of kingdoms and empires cities as…
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Urban Fragility and Global Megacities
By Dr. Stephen Commins A fundamental challenge for the future is that in many low and lower middle income countries, urban population growth will continue to outpace the capacity of both national and municipal governments to effectively maintain infrastructure, manage…
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The wealth and power nexus: will megacities revolutionize global governance?
By Dr. Peter Engelke The rapid growth of cities in Asia, Africa, and elsewhere has shifted the world’s center of wealth, altered global production and consumption patterns, and increased pressures on natural resources. Moreover, the dramatic increase in the number of…
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Can we predict which megacities are most vulnerable to epidemics?
By Dr. Nat Cobb I would like to explore the influence of health on the question: “will megacities be a crucible of disaster or innovation?” It goes without saying that an uncontrolled epidemic in a large city would be a disaster of potentially global impact. What are the factors…