GAINS, PAINS & CAPITAL
Daily Market Commentary by Graham Summers
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Latest posts
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Watch Who They Hire, Not What They Say
If you want to know where monetary policy is going, stop reading the press conferences and start reading the personnel announcements. Over the past four months, the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve have quietly hired three people whose published work points in the…
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The Fed Is Hiking and Yields Are Falling. Look at Paris.
Something odd is happening in the Treasury market, and almost nobody is talking about it. Yesterday the Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4%. Two officials dissented in favor of a hike. Warsh said financial conditions are tighter but he is “unwilling and unable” to call them tight.…
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Consumer Confidence Just Jumped. Only the Top Felt It.
Yesterday the Conference Board reported that consumer confidence rose 7.5 points in October to 91.7. It was the first increase in four months and it beat every forecast. The headlines called it a rebound. The Fed will probably cite it this afternoon as evidence the consumer is…
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The Bond Bubble Is Bursting in Paris First, and America Is Catching the Flight
While everyone here was watching the Fed and the AI earnings, a G7 bond market cracked. Last Wednesday the yield on French 10-year government debt rose above 5% for the first time since 2002. The spread between French and German yields, the single most watched gauge of…
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The Biggest Gas Deal of the Year Is Really a Power Deal
This morning EQT announced it is buying Range Resources in an all-stock deal. The combined company will be the largest natural gas producer in the United States: more than 9 billion cubic feet equivalent a day, nearly 3 million net acres in Appalachia, 30 years of drilling…
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The Army’s CFO Just Told Wall Street Where the Next Government-Backed Boom Is Going
On Monday the Army’s top financial officer published an opinion piece in The Hill with a blunt headline: without private capital, the U.S. will miss its window to rebuild the military. Most people will skim it as another “Pentagon wants help” story. That misses what actually…