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Latest posts
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The AI Bubble Is in the Bond Market
Last week Alphabet had its worst day since it went public in 2004. The shares fell more than 12% and roughly $500 billion came off the company’s value in a single session. The simple story is the one you have heard everywhere: AI stocks are expensive, investors are nervous, the…
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Oil Prices Going in Different Directions – Diesel Still Up
If like me you filled up with diesel this week, you paid a record price. Over 200p a litre. That has never happened before. That is 56p a litre more than this time last year. Now the obvious answer is the war, and the disruption to oil coming through the Strait of Hormuz. But…
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Facts about Global Poverty
In 2024, 10.1% of the world population — about 824 million people — lived in extreme poverty, on less than $3.00 a day (WB) In 2024, roughly 18% of the world population lived on less than $4.20 a day, down from 57% in 1981 (WB) Global extreme poverty is projected to fall only…
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UK Debt Interest Payments Threaten Budget
It’s a week before the Budget, but UK debt just passed £3 trillion, on the same morning as inflation jumped to 3.5%. It creates a real headache for the Chancellor, but ironically, annual borrowing is falling (very marginally). The government borrowed £4.4 billion less than it…
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Which Country Will Go Bust First?
Which G7 country will go bankrupt first? It won’t be the one with the most debt. Japan might owe 199% of GDP but it still borrows more cheaply than anyone. France owes 118% and pays more than Italy, Spain or Greece. Eliminating five Japan has government debt of 199% of GDP, the…
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Britain Has 40 Days of Diesel Left
Diesel has passed £2 a litre in Britain for the first time. In February it was £1.41. It is not because the world ran out of oil. Tankers are moving through the Strait of Hormuz again, Gulf exports are back close to pre-war levels, and Brent crude is around $102 a barrel. Crude…
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Bond Meltdown – What is Going on?
Back in January 2021, you could lend the UK government £100 for thirty years — the safest investment there is. Today that £100 is worth £35. Government bonds have lost 60% of their value, and many fear the sell-off isn’t over. US yields have just hit 5.2% and UK yields 5.4%, the…
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Why A Diesel Export Ban Would Backfire
Update: since this was written, the White House has denied it is preparing a 90-day ban, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright says nobody is considering a flat ban. But Trump and Bessent have both said restrictions are being looked at, and the economics below apply just as much to…
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The German Economic Model is Broken
For decades, Germany was Europe’s economic miracle. Low inflation, high growth and a reputation for the best manufactured goods in the world. German engineering was part of the national identity. But, in recent years, it has really struggled, and the political fallout is…
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The Free Money Era Is Over — Here’s What Replaces It
“I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope… But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” This was said in the early 1990s, by an adviser to Bill Clinton. Thirty years later, rising…
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The 2026 Oil Crisis
Back in early March, in anticipation of rising jet fuel prices, I rushed to buy two air tickets to New York (August and October). The cheapest was Norse Air £500 August (very good deal) and £400 for October with a 3% discount for paying by bank transfer. I did buy with bank…